GOLD & SILVER Report 25th June 2011

If the US Dollar is going to rise upwards next week.... traders need to be aware that if GOLD is trading below Weekly 50% level there may be downward pressure on the price of GOLD once again.

Previous Weekly report

GOLD Primary and Weekly cycles

USD dollar rose and Gold dropped, moving below the Weekly 50% level resulting in the trend moving lower and breaking a number of support levels.

There are 2 important patterns that can play out next week....

#1)Follows the Weekly range towards next week's lows, but then price remains in a tight 5-day range, whilst remaining below the breakout levels @ 1514.

#2) continues to move down towards the Support levels, as shown in the Primary chart in the 3rd Quarter.

In conclusion:- my view is that GOLD is moving down towards the 3rd Quarterly support levels, and those levels will define whether the trend will continue higher during 2011.

Quarterly support is the most robust zone for trends to begin from, and also the most logical level for the next leg of the Primary cycle, if you believe Gold will continue to rise in 2011.

However, keep in mind the failure of those support levels, but i'll come back to that at a later date.

Silver Primary and Weekly cycles


As noted over the past number of week's, Silver is more likely to remain in a tight sideways pattern until the start of the 3rd Quarter.

As we can see, Silver may remain within the Weekly ranges over the next 5-days, until the start of July..

or price could continue down into the June lows @ 31.30

However, we can also see that the trend is likely begin the 3rd Quarter below the support level, and if that's the case, there is the possibility that Silver could drop in the 2nd half of 2011.

And if it does, then the downside target is $24.93

If it gets down that LOW, then BUY silver.

In the mean time, the trend remains sideways, and it will be interesting to see how the next 5-days plays out, and where price is in relation to the 3rd Quarterly support level.

GOLD & SILVER Report 18th June 2011

If the USD begins to reverse down then GOLD should find support at it's Weekly 50% level @ 1523 and push upwards, as part of a move towards higher highs in June/July

If the USD continues to rise up for the next 3-days, then we could get Commodities drifting sideways into July

Previous Weekly report

GOLD Primary and Weekly cycles.

GOLD remains above the Yearly highs, with a possible continuation of the trend upwards into July, within an overall target of $1679.

"if we follow text book patterns, then the Weekly highs are seen as resistance in the USD

And if the trend is going to continue higher, then we look for a minor reversal pattern downward starting Thursday , and for another leg upwards next week, as described in the book"

(Forex Report 15th June)

The USD moved upwards during the first 3-days, hit the Weekly highs, and then reversed down on Thursday & Friday

Those highs in the USD aligned with GOLD finding support above its Weekly 50% level on Thursday, and then moving up towards higher highs on Friday.

Therefore, if the USD is going to rise upwards next week (from Tuesday).... traders need to be aware that if GOLD is trading below Weekly 50% level there may be downward pressure on the price of GOLD once again.

The critical support levels remain the Trailing Weekly lows. (Green @ $1512)


Silver Primary and Weekly cycles

Silver remains supported above it's Primary highs, but with the USD moving upwards, silver looks to be moving into a sideways pattern for the rest of the month.

As mentioned over the past number of weeks....

the critical level in the trend will be defined by the 3rd Quarterly 50% level starting in July (Yellow)....

that is either going to send the price of silver towards new highs in the 3rd quarter....

or the trend reversing down towards

GOLD & SILVER Report 11th June 2011

"Be aware that the trend may revisit the June 50% level on any short-term weakness.

That would be based on the US dollar moving into a short-term counter-trend move upwards later next week ..."

Previous Weekly report

GOLD Primary and Weekly cycles

The USD has risen late this week, putting pressure on Commodities to fall later in the week.

The level the USD has risen on Friday is at point that it can reverse down from next week, and resume its downward spiral, as part of the next stage of a 'dollar collapse'

If the USD begins to reverse down then GOLD should find support at it's Weekly 50% level @ 1523 and push upwards, as part of a move towards higher highs in June/July

If the USD continues to rise up for the next 3-days, then we could get Commodities drifting sideways into July, whilst GOLD slipping down towards the June 50% level and Weekly lows @ $1506


Silver and Weekly cycles

As noted in last week's report, Silver and Gold cycles are different, but if the USD drops Silver will rise, with a support level @ $35.26 coming into play.

If USD continues to rise....

Then silver will continue it sideways pattern into the start of the 3rd quarter...when the upward trend becomes less reliable if it begins trading below the 3rd Quarter 50% level.

GOLD & SILVER Report 4th June 2011

Is Gold going to trend towards $1679 over the next 4 weeks, as the USD dollar collapses??

Because I'm a betting man I think it will.

If it is, then the most robust pattern would be to see the Weekly highs push the price of GOLD down into the June 50% level, which can provide the next set-up for the trend to continue higher from Wednesday onwards

Previous Weekly report

GOLD Primary and Weekly cycles

The USD dollar has been under pressure over the past 5-days, whilst GOLD continues to move upwards.

If the trend continues higher, then price can remain within an orderly pattern, and follow the Weekly highs, and then continue towards $1579 thereafter.

Last week saw selling pressure after the Weekly highs were reached, but the the trend didn't move down into the June 50% level, therefore be aware that the trend may revisit the June 50% level on any short-term weakness.

That would be based on the US dollar moving into a short-term counter-trend move upwards later next week

Silver Primary and Weekly cycles

I would have expected more strength last week, but the cycles are completely different when we compare Silver to GOLD.

GOLD is above the monthly 50% level, whilst Silver remains below.

Therefore, to validate a continuation upwards into the 3rd Quarter, price needs to be trading above the June 50% level @ $40.03

Otherwise traders need to be aware, that if the next few weeks move into a sideways pattern and then closes below the 3rd Quarter 50% level (higher step formation Yellow)....

Silver could come under selling pressure and revisit the Yearly 50% level.

In the mean time, the Primary cycles remain bullish...

but the short & intermediate cycles remain bearish to sideways.